Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THE TRACK OF IDA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE U.S. WILL PROVIDE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR CWA DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION AND SHUNT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN BY FRIDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TO COMPLEMENT THE BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A DRYING TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.


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