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Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

A SPRAWLING HIGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. AND RIDGES WSW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. REGIONAL AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...AS REFLECTED IN 00Z RAOBS. I.E. TAE 0.52...FFC 0.67 AND BMX 0.67 INCH PWATS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. IT IS CLEARLY DELINEATED BY DEW POINT GRADIENT...LOW-MID 40S AHEAD AND UPPER 20S-LOW 30S JUST BEHIND IT. LOOKING S...A LOW PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE SWRN GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE STALLED FRONT THAT SWEPT AWAY LAST WEEKENDS WARM TEMPS. EVEN FURTHER S...WE HAVE NEWLY FORMED TS IDA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS NINTH TS OF THE SEASON WAS HEADED TOWARDS NICARAGUA AND POSES NO LOCAL THREAT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD AND THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SRN PLAINS WED EVE BUILDS RAPIDLY DOWN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THURS. ITS LOCAL IMPACT IS TO BRING A NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENTS LEADING TO COOL AIR ADVECTION AT H85 AND A BONE DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE SOUNDING WITH 0.56 IN PWAT AT 00Z THU DROPPING TO 0.36...0.31 AND 0.27 INCH PWAT AT 18Z THU...00Z FRI AND 18Z FRI RESPECTIVELY AND THEN REMAIN AOB 1/2 INCH THRU 00Z SUN. H8 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL INTO FRI. ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SE STATES AND TO OFF THE COAST ON SAT. HOWEVER MOISTURE RECOVERY IS SLOW...IN FACT LOCAL PWATS DO NOT EXCEED ONE INCH UNTIL 06Z MON.


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