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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR N/NE FURTHER WEAKENS THIS EVE...ALLOWING THE WEAK WARM FRONT TO INCH FURTHER NWD...REMNANT LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF UPPER/LOWER ENERGY AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND INTO EARLY SAT ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE. GFS MORE BULLISH ON RAIN AND LIKE THEIR POPS. WILL GO WITH 50-10 PCT NE-SE POP GRADIENT TONIGHT. MILD LOWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MID 60S SE AL TO NEAR 70 ELSEWHERE. DO EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT (MAINLY SE ALA/SW GA) AND THIS REFLECTED IN SREF PROGS. REST OF SATURDAY...MAIN SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING/DEEP LYR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LAGGING THE FRONT. SO WITH LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY/SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND EXPECTED TO BE INCREASINGLY OUT OF PHASE...WOULD EXPECT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION (TO OUR WEST) TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE. AND...RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTION AND LOCAL DATA SHOWS SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 500-750 J/KG ONLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WITH AN INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SAT...AIRMASS CAN STILL SUPPORT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. 12Z PACKAGE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PREV RUN FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TO WDLY SCT STORMS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS WITH FRONT. THIS INDICATED BY LOCAL STUDY WHICH SHOWS ZERO CHANCE OF 0-1KM SHEAR AOB 30KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE AS FRONT CROSSES ON SAT. PLUS DEEP LYR SHEAR NOT NEGLIGIBLE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AOA 50KTS AT 25% CHANCE WRN ZONES AND GREATER THAN 25KTS EVERYWHERE SAT AFTN. LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOLS NOW PUTS A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE WX ACROSS SE ALA AND ADJACENT FL TONIGHT...SPREADING TO ALL OF CWA AS THE FRONT CROSSES DURING SAT SO WILL HAVE TO ADD SOME STORMS TO FORECAST ON SAT. 60-20 PCT NW-SE POP GRADIENT ON SAT.


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