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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...HAVE SEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. FORTUNATELY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SEEING THIS CHANGE WITH VERY SIMILAR FORECASTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT HAD BEEN A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAS BECOME A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER FEATURE. ENERGY IS NOW PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS NOW SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND EXIT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTS ARRIVAL...WOULD EXPECT THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF ANY STRONGER STORMS AND LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF QPF. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST GRIDS WILL THEREFORE SHOW DRY AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.


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