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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY). THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE ALL AMPLIFY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE GFS DEPICTS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE RETREATING BOUNDARY ACTING AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE BOTH DEPICT A DRIER SOLUTION. AM NOT CONVINCED THAT IT WILL BE AS WET AS THE GFS INDICATES AND WILL UNDERCUT POPS SLIGHTLY. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT QUICKLY FROM THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH AND PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WEAKENING WITH TIME...POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LOW POPS LINGERING OVER THE CWA UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEGINNING SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.


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