Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...IT STILL APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY COMPLEX PATTERN AFTER WE GET THROUGH THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND...AS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF WOULD STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST 00 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT ON THIS SCENARIO (WHICH IT DID AGREE WITH THE EURO AT THE TIME)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND. THE GFS THEN RETURNS DRY AIR TO THE ALL OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL BE VERY INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE NEW 00 UTC ECMWF FOLLOWS THIS NEW TREND AS WELL...BUT IT WILL UNFORTUNATELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO INCORPORATE INTO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NEW GFS AT THIS TIME AND GO WITH A POP REDUCTION. ALSO...STILL EXPECT A DECENT WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMO AFTER MONDAY.


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