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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROF LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS TROF IS FORECAST TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE EURO IS A BIT SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MARCH THROUGH OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR EASTERN LOCATIONS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN AS MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THEY DID WITH THE LAST AS THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATED IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST BELOW CLIMO TEMPS (MID TO UPPER 40`S) TO THE NORTH WHILE TEMPS TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN A BIT WARMER (MID TO LOW 50`S) JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE 00Z GFS WANTS TO GIVE US A DRIER DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE 12Z EURO QUICKLY BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO OUR REGION. WILL LEAN MORE TO THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING A BIT LONGER TO SLIDE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY GIVING US A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY MONDAY HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE RETURNS BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE THROUGH TUESDAY.


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