Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE CONTROLLING WX MAKER FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH TEMPS AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THU. THE SRN PLAINS ENERGY WILL LIFT NEWD TO IOWA BY 12Z FRI AS THE PAC NW ENERGY DIVES INTO THE TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX BY 12Z SAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WORK INTO OUR FAR WRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY THU. POPS THEN INCREASE SLOWLY AND SPREAD E THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH LIKELY POPS OUT W BY FRI AFTERNOON AND CHANCE POPS INTO THE CENTRAL FL BIG BEND. LIKELY POPS WILL COVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR LARGELY ON SAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.


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