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Long Term Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THU THROUGH MON. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER OUT IN FRONT OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A 80-KT UPPER JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. OTHER FLIES IN THE OINTMENT ARE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CARIBBEAN...AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM RICK COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AT THIS TIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS ON OUR DOOR STEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH. STILL MUCH OF THE ENERGY APPEARS TO BE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE STRONGEST 850 FLOW BEING FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO OHIO...WHILE A 100-KT UPPER JET RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MICHIGAN. THE TROPICAL LOW NOW IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING CONTINUING TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...USHERING IN DRIER AIR. BY MONDAY MORNING...FRONT IS STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER JET HAS PARKED ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN DRY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND MOIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL REMAIN SO. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. IN THE EXTENDED...TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.


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