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Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BETWEEN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MID-LEVEL ENERGY SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST THROUGH INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL PUSH WEAKENS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. FRONTAL IS PROGGED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...THE CHANCES FOR WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE WATCHING AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. DOES APPEAR NOW THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE TO FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG/COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH A LITTLE LUCK OUR AREA WILL AT LEAST FEEL A TASTE OF THE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO END OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF WE DO SEE THIS HIGH END UP NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR AREA THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW/SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.


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