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Sunday through Thursday

By: NWS
By: NWS

SO WE ARE LOOKING TO BRING OUR FIRST FALL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING INITIAL PART OF EXTENDED. MODEL DIFFERENCE YIELD A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF FORECAST. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE AMPLITUDE AND IS BY FAR THE FASTEST SOLUTION WITH A FROPA IN THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. CONVERSELY...GFS WHICH IN CONTRAST IS FURTHER NORTH WITH PARENT LOW DEVELOPS A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER MOVING FRONT... BRINGING IT THROUGH IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY PERIOD. THIS MODEL DISTINCTION IS IMPORTANT AS ECMWF WOULD MEAN STRONGER PUSH TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...LEANING TOWARDS SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS DURING MONDAY AND STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE FORECAST MUCH LONGER THAN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. IN WAKE OF FRONT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTERING IN ACROSS CWA. WILL GO WITH MID-HIGH SCT POPS SAT-SUN THEN IN WAKE OF FRONT...WDLY SCT OR BELOW REST OF PERIOD. TEMPS GUIDED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH NO STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. UNDER AMPLE CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN UPPER 60S OR ABOVE CLIMO (LOW 60S). THEN MINS DROP RAPIDLY TO AROUND CLIMO BY MON NIGHT AND SOMEWHAT BELOW CLIMO...UPPER 50S TUES AND WED NIGHTS. AHEAD OF FRONT...MAX TEMPS REMAIN IN UPPER 80S OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (MID 80S) SUN-MON THEN DROP TO AROUND CLIMO REST OF PERIOD.


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