Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURNED OFF... ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID SUMMERLIKE DAY DOMINATED THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT IS STILL PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS OF 830 PM EDT. THERE IS ALSO STILL SOME ONGOING CONVECTION OVER COFFEE COUNTY IN SE AL...AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE HAD THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE DAY (DECENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE POPS ENDED UP A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY...AS 40-50 PERCENT WOULD LIKELY HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE REPRESENTATIVE CWA WIDE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO MONITOR THE CONTINUITY OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES. DO LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S IDEA OF EXPANDING THE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 06 UTC...PERHAPS JUST A BIT MORE UNIFORM THAN CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE 1ST PERIOD FCST HAS BECOME UNNECESSARILY DIFFICULT...AS THE EASTERLY SURGE THAT STARTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED...AND NOW THE 18 UTC NAM AND GFS MODELS AND THE 12 UTC WORKSTATION WRF HAVE BACKED OFF ON IT OVERNIGHT ...SO MAY JUST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEEP WINDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS...AND LIMIT ANY 3 FT SEAS TO WELL OFFSHORE.


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