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Through Thursday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE DONE WELL INDICATING THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. AS THIS DRY SLOT MOVES WESTWARD...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL HELP ONCE AGAIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE NAM AND GFS FEATURE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROF AXIS INTO OUR REGION. THIS RESULTS IN A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENT POP DISTRIBUTION AMONGST THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WHICH RESULTS IN A POP GRID WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE EAST TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOCATED. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES THE PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL PATTERN AND PUSHES THE WEAKENING WAVE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE NAM TENDS TO STALL THE WAVE SLIGHTLY AND KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SINCE IN EITHER SCENARIO...NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WILL FAVOR A WEIGHTED POP BLEND TOWARD THE NAM AND PERSISTENCE. THE GFS JUST LOOKS A LITTLE TOO DRY. WILL CONTINUE THE MUGGY TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES TOO COOL AT NIGHT...SO BUMPED THESE TEMPERATURES UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WELL FORECAST BY THE MODELS.


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