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Friday through Tuesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AND LOSE DEFINITION INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER LESS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND A CONTINUED DECREASE IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD BRING OUR WEATHER BACK TO SEASON NORMALS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND RAIN CHANCES. FRIDAY WILL SEE CHANCE POPS FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM...BUT OVERALL WEATHER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S. ECMWF/GFS IN AGREEMENT IN UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK WEST OVER OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIR CONDITIONS...PERHAPS A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER...AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP BY SUNDAY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST. SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE AND DEGREE OF RIDGING THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO EXTEND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPING MUCH OF THIS HIGH`S INFLUENCE TO OUR NORTH. MAIN WX IMPACTS WOULD BE TO THE MARINE AREA...AS THE ECMWF`S MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A SERIES OF STRONGER NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WIND SURGES... WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE GRADIENT WEAKER AND WINDS UNDER CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION DURING NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST DURATION...AND WILL CONTINUE TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER CONDITIONS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.


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