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By: NWS
By: NWS

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL LEAD TO A LESS CONFIDENT FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. OVERALL...THE ECMWF WILL BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AND INDICATES AN UPPER PATTER CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH WITH SEVERAL PULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY BEGIN TO CHANGE AROUND MID-WEEK WITH UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK NORTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.


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