Through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM FORECAST STILL HAS SOME QUESTION WITH RESPECT TO A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW SPINNING UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WHILE ANY LOW THAT DOES FORM WILL BE VERY WEAK...WHETHER OR NOT IT ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES AND EXACTLY WHERE IT MATERIALIZES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...AND ALSO RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HAVE MADE MINOR EDITS TO THE GRIDS TO LOWER THE OVERALL POPS THROUGH 3-5 AM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF STALLS THIS WEAK LOW ALL DAY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE HELPING TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CWA. IT ALSO GETS THIS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY GOING QUITE EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF I-10. THIS WOULD BE IMPORTANT SINCE OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS GOING WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME WEAK DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SW GA AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THIS NON-PROGRESSIVE FEATURE SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGING THE WEAK LOW EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SEEMS MORE REALISTIC...MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FOR NOW IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH...AND WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS A DEFINITIVE TREND.


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