Through Friday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN MOVING EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD LARGE SCALE ERN CONUS TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH FORECAST PRECIP WATER VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BELOW TWO INCHES FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THE NAM AND 12Z EURO SHOW TROPICAL STORM DANNY MAKING A MUCH CLOSER APPROACH TO THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. BUT WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OUR REGION...DANNY IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR CWA. WHAT WE WILL SEE IS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WITH READINGS IN THE 80S.


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