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Through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

AFTER A SLIGHT HICCUP IN THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS ON SUNDAY (WHICH KEPT A DRY UPPER LOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK)...THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME RAINFALL RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR A MORE CWA WIDE EVENT WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD FALL IN THE WED TO THU TIME SLOT...AS THE UPPER LOW HAS A CHANCE TO GATHER SOME PVA AND GULF MOISTURE AS IT HEADS BACK TOWARDS THE EAST. EXAMINING THE LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE...A MAV/MET BLEND ON POPS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THROUGHOUT THIS FCST CYCLE...WITH THE GREATEST CERTAINTY OF WARMER MAXES FURTHER TO THE W ON TUES. THEREAFTER...CLOUD COVER AND MESOSCALE CONVECTION WILL PLAY LARGER ROLES AND WE COULD SEE SOME RATHER LARGE DISCREPANCIES OVER FAIRLY SHORT DISTANCES DUE TO THESE FACTORS...SO WILL KEEP THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR THE TIME BEING.


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