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Monday through Friday

By: NWS
By: NWS

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TO START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWING LONGWAVE RIDGING FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAIN STATES...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGHING. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WILL BE WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DRY MID-LEVELS OVERHEAD SHOULD CONTINUE TO HIGHLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS AT A SILENT 10% OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND ZONES WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE WILL RUN POPS BELOW CLIMO AT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE 20%. SHOULD BE ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY FOR LATE AUGUST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. MAIN EASTERN TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN A CUTOFF PIECE OF ENERGY BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS WEAK ENERGY...RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PIECE OF TROPICAL ENERGY/TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE AREA AROUND THE BAHAMAS/SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BY THIS TIME AND ANY NUMBER OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE CONCERNING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE. PATH OF LEAST ERROR AT THIS POINT WOULD BE TO NOT GET DETAILED...AND JUST BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS THE DRIER AIR ALLOWING SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


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