Through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED SOMEWHAT THIS CYCLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE WHEN THEY WERE INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM A LITTLE DUBIOUS. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL AND THIS WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INDICATED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE WILL BE PASSING INTO THE MID SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SINCE THIS AREA WILL BE WELL AWAY FROM THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST IN THIS AREA...WILL STAY A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS. FURTHER EAST...THE COMBINATION OF ADVECTING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE LOWER. WILL FAVOR A RESULT CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE ROBUST WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT HASN`T MATERIALIZED FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF CLAUDETTE. WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE BIG BEND AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES. ON THESE DAYS...EXPECT LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE LINE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 WHERE POPS ARE INCREASED TO AROUND 50 PERCENT. THIS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFS IS INDICATING...BUT NOT AS LOW AS THE NAM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXITS THE PICTURE. COULD SEE A FEW INLAND SITES...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TAKE A RUN AT THE MID 90S.


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