Short Term

By: NWS
By: NWS

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARS...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE MARINE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEN SPREAD INLAND BY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM THE MARINE CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN INITIAL STABILIZING INFLUENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...THIS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHER POPS OF 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THESE VALUES. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AXIS OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WILL FAVOR WARMER NUMBERS AT NIGHT AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.


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