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Through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

IT STILL SHOULD BE A RATHER INTERESTING FCST OVER THE NEAR TERM...AS THE HOT AND HUMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...AS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS QUITE CERTAIN AT PRESENT...THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE TRANSITION IS STILL QUITE A BIT IN QUESTION. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...I WAS VERY CONFIDENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER POPS NOT ENTERING THE PICTURE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND EVEN THE EARLIER 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF...NOW SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY WITH HIGHER POPS ENTERING THE PICTURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...UNLESS THERE ARE SOME LAST MINUTE CHANGES OF THOUGHT...THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE AN EAST TO WEST INCREASING POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TUE AFTN.


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