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By: NWs
By: NWs

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GONE WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY STACKED MID/LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THIS IS A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF OUR MID-SUMMER SEASON. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MIGRATING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO...WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTROLLED ENTIRELY BY THE DAILY SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS. EC/GFS ALSO AGREE ON AN AREA OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS DRIER AIR WOULD HAVE A SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT ON THE DAILY CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA). INHERITED POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE NUMBERS. HOWEVER...IF CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BECOMES HIGHER IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES...THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN OVER THE BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA WHERE THE INFLUENCE WOULD LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED. GFS IS FASTER TO RETURN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS...ESPECIALLY THAT FAR OUT...DO NOT CARRY THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. HOLDING TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO NUMBERS SEEMS MOST REASONABLE AT THIS TIME UNTIL A CHANGE IN PATTERN BECOMES APPARENT.


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