Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED INITIALLY BY A LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE ...A TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT WRN ATLC. THE EARLY PERIOD SHOWS THAT WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER...THE LATTER AIDED BY A DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND BY SAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH KICKING THE ATLC RIDGE FURTHER EWD. ON SUNDAY TROUGH MOVES EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST INTO CWA. ASSOCD UPPER LOW OVER NRN GREAT LAKES MEANDERS EASTWARD. OVER WEEKEND...THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A COLD FRONT AND DRAG IT SEWD ALLOWING IT TO SURGE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING FRONT INTO LOCAL AREA BY SAT AND STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FL THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN FL. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT/TROUGH LATE FRI THRU WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...THE MODELS KICK FRONT SWD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ITS WAKE ESPECIALLY ALA/GA CWA. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT.. FRONT THEN STALLS CLOSE ENOUGH TO FL CWA TO KEEP LIMITED MOISTURE IN AREA (MAINLY ERN FL/ADJACENT GA)INTO WED. BY WED FRONT WASHES OUT. ALL THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR MID JULY HOWEVER MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WILL GO WITH MID-HIGH SCT POP FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...THEN WDLY SCT-LO SCT POPS SUN NIGHT THRU WED. PERIOD BEGINS WITH MIN TEMPS IN LOW 70S AND ABOVE CLIMO (68-69) THEN IN WAKE OF FRONT AND WITH INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...MINS DROP TO BELOW CLIMO SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT BEFORE INCHING BACK UP TO CLIMO TUES NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OR BELOW CLIMO (AROUND 90) UNTIL RETURNING TO CLIMO ON WED.


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