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Through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL FROM THE MORNING MCS HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO A LINE ROUGHLY FROM VALDOSTA TO TALLAHASSEE TO DESTIN. NORTH OF THIS LINE...NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STABILIZED AIRMASS. BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND WHERE THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SEABREEZE. WITH THE LACK OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING SUN AND BE MOSTLY OVER BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT ON THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO DRIVE THE SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BY TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE...THIS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA. CORRESPONDING TO THE LOWER POPS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP OVER PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SIMILAR PATTERN TO PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER SOUTH. ALSO...SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY THE SEABREEZE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY.


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