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Thursday through Monday

By: NWS
By: NWS

BOTH THE 00 UTC GFS AND PRIOR 12 UTC ECMWF RUN REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROLONGED DISTURBED PERIOD RETURNING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATER ON THURSDAY...AS A VERY SHARP TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CARVES SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE MS RIVER...WHILE THE HOT AND DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD OVER UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHARPENING TROF....WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN MCS CORRIDOR... SHOULD KEEP POPS ABOVE CLIMO AND MAX TEMPS BELOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEREFORE...WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN THIS LONG TERM PATTERN...SEE LITTLE REASON NOT TO BUMP UP DAYTIME POPS TO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE AS CLIMO FOR TLH ALREADY IS 40 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FURTHERMORE...AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL TIME FRAME IN A FEW DAYS...EXPECT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.


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