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Through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION REALLY WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STABILITY AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY UNLIKELY DESPITE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MCV`S. WENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED T IN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT N OF THE FL BORDER. POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A REDUCTION IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND POP ACROSS THE NRN ZONES BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. THE ECMWF...NORMALLY A RELIABLE MODEL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN FROM THE N WITH MUCH LOWER QPF. THAT WORKS AGAINST CLIMATOLOGY...ALTHOUGH CLIMO HAS HARDLY BEEN A GOOD FORECAST SO FAR THIS SUMMER. WE DECIDED TO GO CLOSER TO THE MAV POPS WITH SOME OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THROWN INTO THE MIX. LOOK FOR CATEGORICAL POPS S TO LIKELY N ON TUE WITH LIKELY S TO CHANCE N FOR WED. CONCERNING FLOOD POTENTIAL...GENEVA AND WALTON COUNTIES GOT ON THE ORDER OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOWEVER..ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS MITIGATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. LATEST QPF NO LONGER SUPPORTS A LONG FUSED WATCH AND IT WAS CANCELLED. THAT SAID...THE PANHANDLE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH NRN WALTON THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. TEMPS WERE DEFINITELY KEPT IN CHECK TODAY BY ALL CLOUD COVER AND WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY OF MERCIFULLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE. TEMPS WILL EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WED...BUT STILL COME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY.


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