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Thursday through Monday

By: NWS
By: NWS

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. PERIOD BEGINS WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ALOFT...THIS PERSISTENT SUMMER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY MEAN COOL TROUGHS CENTERED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PAC NW COAST AND ALONG ERN SEABOARD WITH A BROAD HOT RIDGE IN BETWEEN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AXIS SW TO HIGH OVER TX/NM BORDER. UPPER LOWS REMAIN INVCNTY OF OREGON/WASH COAST JUST OFF N ENGLAND. THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS APPROACHING BAHAMAS. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING DAYS 4/5 WITH NW FLOW ACROSS SE REGION. THEY SHOW PLAINS RIDGE ADVANCING EWD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN FRONT SIDE AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES ALLOWING ERN TROUGH TO SHARPEN OFF ATLC COAST WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGE INTENSIFIES BACK TO THE WEST FROM BAHAMAS WWD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND KEEPING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AS A RESULT...A DIFFLUENT PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ESPECIALLY NE GULF REGION RESULTING IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DAYS 4-5. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO FL. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (WITH CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES) ON PERSISTENT TROUGH/ BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL WED...BUT THEN BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE LATE THURS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EWD SHUNTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS E OF CWA AND FL RIDGE CONTS NWD. ACCORDINGLY POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THRU PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...GFS/ECMWF STILL DIVERGE MODESTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EWD. BUT OVERALL...CWA REMAINS BETWEEN EXPANDING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND ON BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS EXPANDS LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE SE STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF A TAD LESS AGGRESSIVE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH TO PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE SE U.S. ALL IN ALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DOMINATED BY LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ENERGY/ DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA...AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION TRANSLATES TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THRU THURS...THEN SCT CONVECTION THURS NIGHT THRU MON AS SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND A RETURN TO NORMAL SEA BREEZE AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY. MIN TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (CLIMO AROUND 70) WITH MAX TEMPS BEGINNING EXTENDED IN UPPER 80S...A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO LOW 90S). THEY THEN RETURN TO CLIMO SAT AND INCH UP TO A TAD ABOVE CLIMO ON MON...ALLOWING FOR A PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.


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