Weather Through Friday

By: NWS
By: NWS

WILL HAVE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THEREFORE WILL BE RE-INTRODUCING POPS TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. MAV IS STILL QUITE DRY...BUT HAS BEEN UNDER-ESTIMATING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS SEASON...AND WILL BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS (30-40% POPS) WILL BE ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES FAVORED BY WEST/NW FLOW (COASTAL AND EASTERN FL BIG BEND). WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE REMAINING ZONES. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS WE WILL BE SEEING ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 90S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER LAND SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO THE LATER THUR EVENING HOURS. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THEREFORE WILL EXPECT TO SEE WIDELY SCT CONVECTION DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...HOWEVER IT IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE PROGGED PRESSURE PATTERNS. THEREFORE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS ADDED TO THE TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50% WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALONG OUR FAVORED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES UNDER W/NW FLOW. USED A BLEND OF OUR REGIME 8 CLIMO/MAV/SREF TO ARRIVE AT A FINAL POP GRID. CONTINUED VERY WARM (MID 90S)...BUT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED CU FIELD AND COOLING EFFECT OF ANY SHOWERS.


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