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Wednesday through Sunday

By: NWS
By: NWS

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TO START OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THIS PATTERN DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOWING DECENT DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT...AS WE TRY TO TIME THE ARRIVAL AND STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THESE DISTURBANCE OFTEN AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. INHERITED GRIDS RAISE POPS BACK TO 30-40% COVERAGE BY FRIDAY...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THIS MORNING`S GUIDANCE. WHILE THE DETAILS MIGHT NOT MATCH...BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND CONDUCIVE FOR CLIMO TO ABOVE CLIMO POPS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS (ESPECIALLY HIGHS) SHOULD THEN SETTLE BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS SLOW THE DIURNAL RISE.


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