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By: NWS
By: NWS

(SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI.) AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY SEWD TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY 00Z WED. FROM WED-THU...THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE 25/12Z EURO TO LIFT THE LOW EWD. THIS DEAMPLIFIES THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SERN U.S. THE EURO DOESN`T LIFT THE LOW OUT OF PA UNTIL THU NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE DEEP S SUN NIGHT AND MON AND FINALLY SETTLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. JUST HOW FAR S THIS FRONT WILL GET IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT WE SEE...IF ANY...FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN LOW AS IT EMERGES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALSO HOW QUICKLY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL LOW AND CLIMATOLOGY DICTATE THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT. IF THE EURO SOLUTION OF A DEEPER AND MORE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH VERIFIES...THE BOUNDARY MAY SLIP A BIT FURTHER TO THE S...ALLOWING NRN AREAS TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BEGINNING ON TUE. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND IN POP SEEN AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SETTLES INTO OR NEAR THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL SHOW A BIT MORE OF A N TO S GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER POP TO THE N. AFTER ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHT SUN NIGHT...TEMPS WILL SETTLE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


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