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Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE RETURNING TO A FAR MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS THE TROUGH OFF THE ERN SEA BOARD CONTINUING TO BE REPLENISHED WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE EVEN FURTHER TO THE W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED S OF THE AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS WWD ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA BREEZE TS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TYPE THAT WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS AND POPS THAT ARE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN AT LEAST A WEEK AND A HALF. GUIDANCE REPRESENTS THIS FARLY WELL AND WE WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM IT. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND YESTERDAY`S 12Z EURO DEPICT A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING SWD INTO THE DEEP S BY TUE AS THE TROUGHING SETS UP. WILL INCREASE POPS BY AROUND 10 PERCENT ON TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


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