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Thursday through Monday

(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH THE LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME FOR OUR REGION. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...OUR REGION WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS...WILL INCREASE POPS ABOVE THE MEX GUIDANCE ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TO THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THE 22/00Z GFS SHOWS THAT THIS RIDGE BUILDING BACK EASTWARD WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION A LITTLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INDICATE A DRIER FORECAST. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE (MAYBE MORE?) MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 22/00Z EURO JUST IN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR FEATURE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS LOW...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME LOOK TO BE ABOUT NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY.


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