Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG H5 RIDGING OVER CENTRAL/WEST GULF. ALTHOUGH H5 HEIGHTS OVERHEAD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL FOR JUNE...587-589DM...THE DOME OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO NEVER RETREAT ENOUGH TO LOOSE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THEREFORE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 17-20C RANGE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS A DIFFICULT PLACE TO BE IN TERMS OF FORECASTING CONVECTION. THE WARM MID-LEVELS AND GENERALLY DRY COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE. HOWEVER...UNDER THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WE HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR MINOR SHORTWAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT CAN ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND WEAKEN THE PROTECTIVE CAPE. DO TO THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THESE FEATURES...THEY ARE OFTEN NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE. WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE MEX POP GUIDANCE (SLIGHT CHANCE) AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE OF THE WEEKEND AFTERNOONS WAS A BIT MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN THE OTHER DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH FEATURE. DURING THE WEEKEND GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THESE HEIGHT FALLS...THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BE AMPLIFYING AND MOVING EASTWARD A BIT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS RIDGE BECOMING QUITE DOMINANT OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TO POTENTIAL QUITE HOT...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED BELOW CLIMO LEVELS.


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