Through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

DIURNALLY FORCED (ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED) SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN DURING THE MIDDLE/LATER EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. 588DM LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF INTO TUESDAY WITH OUR AREA SEEING GENERALLY LIGHT WEST/NW FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WILL THE RESULTING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN CLEARLY ON AREA-WIDE TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS. THIS TIME OF YEAR...AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELL BREAKING THE CAP IN ANY RIDGING SITUATION CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND WILL CHOOSE TO COVER THE SITUATION WITH A 20 PERCENT POP IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND A SILENT 10% ELSEWHERE INTO THE PANHANDLE/AL AND GA. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS GOING TO BE RATHER HIGH WITH THE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OR EVEN LATER AFTERNOON. GOING TO FEEL LIKE SUMMER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 17-19C SHOULD MIX OUT INTO WIDESPREAD LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. VERY LITTLE CHANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STRONG PROVIDING ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO BETWEEN 19-20C SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT TO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH A FEW NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 90S. COLUMN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEMI-CAPPED UNDER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCALIZED POCKETS OF ENHANCED CAPE/LIFT ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALSO...GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ASCENT ALONG THIS AXIS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED CELLS. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH 10-20% POPS COVERING THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.


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