May 19, 2013
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES. NEVERTHELESS...THEY ALL SHOW AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WHICH INCLUDES AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THIS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES BY EVENING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HINDERING ITS EASTERN PROGRESSION. FOR FRIDAY...WILL TRIM POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERNMOST ZONES WHERE WE WILL SHOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES.
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