May 19, 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WE FEEL THAT THE GFS SOLUTION AND CORRESPONDING MOS POPS ARE OVERDONE. THE NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WILL ALSO YIELD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPS. THUS FOR TUESDAY WE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT POP FOR THE FLORIDA ZONES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FOR WEDNESDAY POPS INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL REGION.
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