May 25, 2013
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES THIS EXTENDED FORECAST A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOWING THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TO START OUT THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH A MESSY RIDGE CONFIGURATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLD/WDLY SCT AFTERNOON STORMS. OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO DIG A BROADER TROUGH INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PATTERN AMPLIFIES FURTHER DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHARPLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE CLIMO POPS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE UNDER THIS PATTERN MAY BE QUITE NUMEROUS IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD- COVER AND CONVECTION. WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S BOTH DAYS.
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