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Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED. GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATING SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS TO START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAIN FEATURES WILL INCLUDE LONGWAVE RIDGING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN STATES. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN WASH OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. LATEST GFS IS VERY SLUGGISH IN EXITING MID-LEVEL ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HANGS TROUGHING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN EXITING THE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE 27/12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY CLOSER TO THIS LATTER SOLUTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STACKED RIDGING AND TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MEX WOULD SUGGEST. GETTING A BIT LATE IN THE YEAR FOR A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HOWEVER SINCE ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT...HAVE A HARD TIME NOT BASING THE GRIDS ON THIS SCENARIO. THANKS TO THIS LATE SEASON FROPA...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER AND POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED AS OF LATE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OR TROUGHING TO SPEAK OF...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S...AND SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ASSOC WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.


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