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Through Monday

By: NWS
By: NWS

LOCAL AREA REMAINS BETWEEN GULF LOW TO OUR W AND HIGH REMAINING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS THAT SAGS IN OVER THE SE CONUS THRU WEEKEND. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW NWWD THRU TONIGHT MOVING IT INLAND TOWARDS NEW ORLEANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS THEN LIFTS LOW NNW ACROSS MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. AS LOW AND HIGH DEPART FURTHER FROM LOCAL AREA...LOCAL GRADIENTS ARE DECREASING FROM E-W. HOWEVER...VEERING FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THRU WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AIDED BY INSOLATION. THIS REFLECTED IN AREA TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS WHICH SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FROM AROUND 1.60" TONIGHT TO NEARLY 2.0" FRI NIGHT AND REMAINING ABOVE 1.6 INCHES UNTIL 06Z TUES. SO AREA POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATERGORICAL CATEGORY FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (VEERING WINDS OFFSET BY THICK CLOUDS) WITH MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL. WITH LOW DEPARTING AND HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH... LOCAL GRADIENTS FINALLY RELAX BY SUNDAY. CLOUDY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NW...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONFIRMED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS THAT SHOWS INCREASING PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF CWA DUE LARGELY TO VORT LOBES ROTATING NWD AROUND UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN MOST RECENT WRF MODEL WHICH INCREASES CONVECTION FROM S AND E. SOME OF THE STORMS IN BANDS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IF IT ENCOUNTERS BREAKS IN SUN.


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