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Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO START OUT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. GENERAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOWLY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM AND ELONGATED RIDGING FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY EASTWARD TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF AND BE SLOWLY FILLING. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. JUST HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM RESIDES TO OUR REGION WILL INFLUENCE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST AND KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER IF THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT FURTHER EAST AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR WITH HIGHER POPS BECOMING NECESSARY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/COASTAL WATERS ZONES. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BEST MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND THE GFS INDICATING A RATHER DISTURBED DAY OF SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS. OF NOTE...THE 20/00Z CANADIAN IS SUGGESTING A LOW POSITION CLOSER TO THAT FORECAST BY THE GFS. WHILE DON`T OFTEN STRAY FAR FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH HPC RECOMMENDATION...SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS). A GOOD COMPROMISE FORECAST RESULTS IN 50-60% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST AND 40-50% POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S. ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON THIS REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE ABSORBED INTO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH TIME. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP OUR AFTERNOON HOURS ACTIVE WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND LIKELY EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION EACH DAY.


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