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Through Wednesday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE (MET/MAV) OUTPUT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE WELL INLAND LOCATIONS OR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IT WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THIS AND GENERALLY SHOW THE UPPER LOW ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW TOWARD THE TAIL-END OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEYS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF SHEAR VORTICITY WITH THE LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEED ACROSS THE END OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS TYPICALLY SEEN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN WITH TWO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS OR A VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONE LOW CENTER OVER THE KEYS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND IF THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN...THE MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA.


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