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Through Sunday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT). ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH AN END EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...EXPECT SEA BREEZE FRONTS TO PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND. STILL EXPECTING SIMILAR COVERAGE TO TODAY...SO POPS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS INDICATED BY THE GFS-BASED MAV MOS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE INTERESTING DAY. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF TRAILING THIS SYSTEM...SO THERE DOES APPEAR ENOUGH DYNAMICAL FORCING AVAILABLE TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE A COLD FRONT PROGRESS THIS FAR SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA IN MID-LATE MAY...THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES WILL CREATE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS ESSENTIAL. WILL OPT FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE NAM...WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH 21Z. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASED HEATING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE...THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALMOST PROHIBITIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY DOES EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY BET IS FOR INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF THE PULSE VARIETY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ON THE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY.


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