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Discussion through Next Friday

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WILL BE REPLACED BY A RATHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...STALLING OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN THE FCST BECOMES COMPLICATED WITH THE GFS` DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW INVOF SRN FL/FL STRAITS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS WWD INTO THE ERN GOMEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN NWWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH A DEEP MOIST SELY FLOW. CONVERSELY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF GENERATED THE CUTOFF LOW E OF FL...WITH THE SYSTEM MEANDERING N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GENERATE A DRIER NELY FLOW INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 4...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO LEAN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH REGARDS TO POP AND TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.


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