May 19, 2013
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED HIGHLIGHTED BY A STRENGTHENING ERN PAC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH REACHING THE ERN STATES. SPECIFICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SE CONUS EARLY IN EXTENDED IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF ABOVE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-CONTINENT EARLY ON SUNDAY AND ALONG WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHIFTS EASTWARD TO ERN CONUS INTO MONDAY AND ATLC ON TUESDAY. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST OVER NW FL ON MONDAY AND INTO THE NE GULF ON TUESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION...THEN THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN...MODELS BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF HIGH SO ITS HARD THIS FAR OUT TO FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NIL POPS BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD BUT INCREASE TO SCT POPS SATURDAY AFTN THRU EARLY MONDAY WEST...AND MONDAY AFTN EAST ZONES. THEN NIL POPS MONDAY EVE-WEDNESDAY. TEMPS BEGIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN MID 60S...THEN COOL TO CLIMO. IN WAKE OF FRONT..TEMPS DROP TO BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCHING UP TO CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY.
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