Discussion through Monday

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THROUGH MONDAY) THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A FLAT 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDING DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...AS WELL AS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THE Q-G FORCING WILL BE WEAK...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL FORECAST AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACTING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH GA AND SOUTH AL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY...THEN NEAR AVERAGE MONDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.


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