May 19, 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FILLING IN BEHIND IT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL LAY OUT FROM EAST TO WEST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...A SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OR NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM ALBANY TO DOTHAN. THE MODELS INDICATE A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ALBANY TO TLH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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