Through Friday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MIDWEST/OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AND LI`S TO -2 ARE PROGGED OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS OUR NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY. POPS WILL BE NIL UNTIL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN 20-30 PERCENT ARE INTRODUCED FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMO WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO ABOVE CLIMO.


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