Saturday through Wednesday

By: NWS
By: NWS

GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TO START THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ON SATURDAY...WILL FIND A POTENT UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES...AND FINALLY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING A VERY PLEASANT AND FAIR START TO THE WEEKEND AS SATURDAY`S FORECAST CONTAINS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. UNFORTUNATELY IN THIS FAST MOVING PATTERN...THE FAIR WEATHER WILL NOT LAST. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE WESTERN U.S. ENERGY RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME TENDENCY TO DEVELOP A PSEUDO-WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DURING THIS TIME EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ELEVATED STORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARM FRONT WOULD LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST 00Z GFS IS REALLY AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A HEALTHY SWATH OF SYNOPTIC FORCING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HAVE NOT GOT A LOOK AT THE 00Z EC YET...HOWEVER THE 12Z RUN...WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS THE GFS...STILL ADVERTISES A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. WITH THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WX EVENT FOR THURSDAY TAKING CURRENT PRIORITY...WILL NOT GO INTO SIGNIFICANT DETAIL...HOWEVER THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS (IN ADDITION TO MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TO AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SITUATION). GFS SHOWS A HEALTHY SWATH OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS OF 50KTS...PLENTY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. ECMWF/GFS THEN BOTH HAVE THE COLD FRONT PASSING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT TO BE BELOW NORMAL. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS WOULD BE SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WHICH BRINGS 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO (OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO). HOWEVER...EVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER EC WOULD SUGGEST SOME RATHER CRISP/COOL MORNING LOWS FOR APRIL


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