May 23, 2013
VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SWING EWD ACROSS NE AND THEN OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE STATE OF MS BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING EWD FROM THAT. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT SET UP ALONG AND N OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. CURRENT QPF SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 30-HR RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED EVENING WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM N OF PFN NEWD TO MOULTRIE GA. SIMILAR RAINFALL TOTALS FELL OVER THE WEEKEND IN THIS AREA. WE HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT OUR 4 ERN FL BIG BEND ZONES FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE E...THE TRAILING FRONT WILL LAY OUT E-W AND STALL N OF THE AREA. WINDS SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR S OF THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS AT ANY TIME WED AND WED NIGHT. BY 00Z FRI...AN EVEN MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS NEWD THU NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THIS NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY UNENDING SERIES OF SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES.
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